Historical Methods

The Necessity of Croatia’s Demographic Revival

Excerpt from the Address of Franjo Tudjman, President of Croatia,on the State of the Nation at the Joint Session of Parliament, December 22, 1994

Distinguished Members of Both Chambers of the Croatian Parliament

I dare say, here and now: the most severe and the most baleful consequence of the rule over the Croatian people by the artificial Communist system and anti-Croatian Yugoslav state is the extremely alarming demographic situation of Croatia!

It is such that the Croatian people would be faced with extinction if we did not take decisive steps. The natural population of Croatia has been decreasing for 45 years (since 1950) and it is now lower than the death rate. For every 100 people who died in 1993, we had only 95.5 newborns.

When I drew attention to this problem 30 years ago I received a derisory response from the Central Committee of the Croatian League of Communists: nationalists forget about the effect of civilization.

The fact that today all European countries, with the exception of Italy and Austria which are at the break-even point, have a positive natural growth with only Croatia having negative growth, supports the argument that in the case of Croatia the main reasons for this were of political and not of a civilizational nature.

In relation to the average natural growth trend in Croatia, the 1993 situation in the counties was as follows: the following eight counties were above the average 95.5 births per 100 deaths: city of Zagreb 102.7; County of Osijek-Baranja 106.9; County of Meimurje 107.6; County of Dubrovnik-Neretva 110.3; County of Brod-Posavina 118.2; County of Vukovar-Srijem 129.4; County of Zadar-Knin 132.6; County of Split-Dalmatia 135.4.

Below average were the following 13 counties: Poega-Slavonia 94.9, ibenik 92.0, Varadin 89.3; Istria 82.5; Virovtica-Podravina 81.1; Primorje-Gorski Kotar 79.5; Sisak-Moslavina 77.8; Zagreb 75.8; Koprivnica-Krievci 70.1; Bjelovar-Bilogora 70.0; Krapina-Zagorje 69.9; Lika-Senj 62.5; and Karlovac 61.3.

The picture of a depopulated, deserted and aged Croatia from the Adriatic Islands across Lika to Podravina and Hrvatsko Zagorje is even more depressing if we look at the fact that growth is lower than the satisfactory Croatian average in 305 cities and municipalities (in 97 cities the index is 75-95, in 124 the index decrease is 50-74, and in as many as 84 municipalities the index decrease is below the incredible figure of 50!).

One hundred and sixty towns and municipalities have a growth index higher than the Croatian average (in 24 the index is 95.5-100, in 35 according 100-110, and in 101 higher than 111).

The basic reasons for this more than alarming situation are the following:

- Too many people of prime age have left Croatia,

- Too few children are being born, and there are too many abortions,

- The elderly to young population ratio is disproportionately high, which it continues to deteriorate meaning a decrease of working-age and defence capable population.

According to available data, 77% of rural population is over 40, 18% of women have not had any children, about 20% of women have had one child, 34% two children, only 11% three, only 4.4% four and 5% more than four children.

In order to change this situation of Croatia’s extinction we need a well-planned and fully developed demographic policy.

The seriousness and strategic importance of this objective is implied by the fact that such a situation can be changed only in 20-30 years by a resolutely implemented active population policy. Even if every mature woman were to bear three children as from today, the decline of natural growth would only stop in 2020!

Therefore, it is high time for the state leadership, the Croatian Parliament and the Government to adopt a programme of Croatia’s demographic revival. We need a demographic policy programme which will provide for the revival of the Croatian people and family.

It must be founded on spiritual (political and educational), economic and social prerequisites.

The increase of natural growth must be stimulated. Primarily, this can be done by increasing the family allowance to the point where the financial needs of a family with three children are taken care of, or free education provided for their children.

A mother of four (and more) children should be given the average salary of her rank so that she could devote herself to bringing up her children and be existentially secure. Families with more children should enjoy housing priority. Single persons should pay higher taxes. The award of shares to families with more children and newborn children should also be considered.

Each year there are 42,000 to 45,000 abortions, mainly because the parents cannot support another child. The material reasons for abortion should be eliminated by the proposed and other steps for promoting responsible parenthood. Advisory activity with parents and married couples should be enhanced in order to promote the acceptance and protection of the unborn child.

In the discussion of such a demographic situation, it has to be kept in mind that it is even more difficult owing to problems related to the occupied territories.

I believe that the preparation and implementation of a demographic revival programme should be one of the most important objectives of the Ministry for Reconstruction and Development, although the entire state structure as well as all components of our national and social life should also be held responsible for its implementation.